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Monday, May 20, 2019

Dutching

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This is one of the most used strategies in professional betting. A professional bet only makes sense when the expected win is a positive number. With this strategy the player excludes the least possible outcome and he is betting on his favorite bets. Additionally, the risk is minimized when you play with a very small amount, in a significant number of positive-expected games.

Usually, if you expect 50 50 to win or lose a certain match, you may lose successively or win successively up to 8 games. (It is possible to lose hundreds of games consecutively, but this happens very rarely, so we will look at up to 8 match losses consistently).

You estimate that the probability of Leicester City to win against Manchester united is 6/10 and the odds given by the bookie is, for example, 2.10. Your expected value if you bet 100 euro is

0.6x (100 x 2.1 – 100) -0.4 x 100 = 26 Euro.

The expected statistical profit on this bet is 26 euro. This means that if you have countless similar matches and bet everyone, you will earn an average of 26 Euro per match.

For example, 10 football games on which we are estimating the probability of win at 6/10 all 10 games have odds of 2.10. As per this formula we expect +260 euro as a result.

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