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Sports Betting for WINNERS
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Sports Betting for WINNERS

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Walters made his fortune from betting American sports, he was one of the original founders of the computer group. Australian Alan Woods (deceased) went to Hong Kong in the mid 1980's, were he teamed up with William Benter to form a syndicate to bet on horses. He was said to be worth US $500 million at the time of his death in 2008. Tony Bloom and Matthew Benham have something else in common, they both own football clubs and believe in employing Geeks to build algorithms.

Bloom is the owner of Star lizard and said to be worth a cool Billion. Benham is the owner of Smartodds, a company that specialize in statistical research and sports modeling. Nevertheless, the pair that intrigue me most are Australian partners Ranogajec and Walsh, two university buddies who made it so big, they where being pursued for Aus $900 million by the Australian tax authorities. Whist they too worked on sports betting modules , it was rebates that bought them the big money. Walsh best explained how they profiteered when he said in court, we actually lost about 5% from the betting but we had a 10% rebate. In effect, we finished 5% ahead because of the discount. It came out that in three and half years they cleared $44 million from an outlay of just $200,000 on US horse racing. The pair were also reported to be the biggest market makers at Betfair, were they claimed to have traded over 1 billion a year!

Are you going to be next? As things stand, it's become more difficult because of the changing regulatory environment. Nevertheless, it doesn't mean you can't make a good living from sports betting. Many people do!

Spotting value

Imagine a football match between England and Germany. ItВґs the end of extra time and it's still a draw. What comes next is penalties, many refer to them as the lottery. A quick look at statistics show that Germany had won 6 from their last 7 shoot-outs against England (85.7%).

Ask yourself this - If the bookies offer odds of 1.65 Germany and 2.4 England. Would it be good value betting Germany?

Looking at the stats, their would be a case for saying yes their would be value. Afterall, we are being offered 1.65 (60-6%) about something that has occurred on 85.7% of occasions. However, the reality is something different. Germany might have won 6 from their last 7 shootouts, but would you bet red on the roulette table if it had come 6 times from the last 7 spins. Whilst sports-betting is a game of skill and roulette a game of chance, we need to keep it realistic by asking.

Which players will be taking penalties. Ability of the goalkeepers as penalty stoppers. Home advantage and which set of fans are behind the shooting goal. No algorithm in the world would come up with such a strong bias as the odds we suggested. at the most extreme the true odds would be 1.90 and not 1.65!

Search for best odds

I am amazed how complacent people are about obtaining value. If you are not taking the best odds, you are doing yourself a dis-service. Think of it like any business, whether you are the buyer or seller. Indeed, a fool and his money are easily parted.

With regards to obtaining the best odds, a lot will depend on your individuals situation. If you are in a country where Sports-betting is legal and not strongly regulated. It's half the battle.

But it's not always easy if you are a known winner. if UK horse racing was your forte, you would probably need to place your bets on the high street. Betting online with a leisure Bookmaker will lead to a marked card.

With regards to professional sport-betting. There are maybe 10 online bookmakers worldwide who accept sharps (Professionals) . The obvious ones being Pinnacle, Sbobet, Ibc, Crown,Eastern dynasty,Singbet, ISN and Matchbook (Join here). These bookmakers specialize in Asian h'caps, a bet that reduces the betting proposition to two. Bookmakers work the odds like the stock exchange (supply/demand), they move the lines to adapt to the weight of money. With the aim of making a small margin from a big turnover.

The benefits for you the punter are competitive odds and unlike with the stock market their is more than one price available. Imagine bookmakers offering lines on proposition A and B. Pinnacle have 2.01 - 1.93 , Sbobet 1.96 - 1.96, Ibcbet 1.95 - 1.97 . To get the best out of the situation as a professional punter you would want to bet the home team with Pinnacle (2.01) and the away team with Ibcbet (1.97). By scraping the lines you have best odds of 2.01 - 1.97. Having only one bookmaker option would have you betting at 2% (4 cent line) . Using a combination see's the juice shrunk to 0.5% (1 cent). the more bookmaker options you have, the better you will scrape the line.

We would recommend anyone needing to obtain best odds to use a betting agent account. They can move your money around between accounts in minutes and without unnecessary cost. Several can offer betting tools that allow you to bet with all bookmakers from one account. And the bookmaker doesn't know the end bettor (numbered accounts) --- If you need information or an introduction send a mail to us at info@betting-analyst.com.

Warning : If you use a broker, i would advise you to study what they are giving. some are deceitful and shorten odds to line their own pocket

Information is the key

Acquire as much information has you possibly can about any game that you are betting on. This is not a lazy mans game, nor a get rich quick scheme. I would suggest a good place to start is following proven tipsters, particularly ones who specialize in certain leagues. Do your research and exploration and keep a track of everything. There are a wide range of tools available, some are free and some cost money. Whilst we use www.soccerinternational.co.uk, it's expensive and the same information is available elsewhere (if you are willing to put the work in) for free.

Niche

We like betting on the early market. Whilst we might not be fully informed neither is the bookmaker. Maybe we are successful on the early market because of our bookmaking background. As market makers we always had to be a step or two ahead. It doesn't mean it's for you, everyone to their own!

Find your niche, concentrate on what you know best. That might be a certain sport, certain leagues or how you read a game. For others it's the maths or sports modeling, everyone is different, find your niche!!

Money management

Before starting any business you need a financial plan, the first rule is don't stretch yourself and bet to your pocket. We might bet anything from 0.4% to 3.0% of our bank, it suits our style of betting 80 i know of others who bet 3000 propositions with maximum stakes of 0.5%.

We determine bet size from our understanding of a particular league/game, this is supported by hard statistics. We know that over the years our main success has been la ligue (France), suffice to say we bet accordingly. However,realism is a must, and if their is one rule i always follow , the bigger the discrepancy, the bigger the bet!!

My 10 golden rules:

  1. Work with an agent to obtain best odds (Scrape lines!)
  2. Put in the hard work, this is not a part time job.
  3. Study hard and learn how to evaluate.
  4. Don't be scared to take advice.
  5. Patience is a virtue, don't bet for the sake of it.
  6. Make a financial plan and stick with it.
  7. Find your niche
  8. Treat betting like a business
  9. Learn to ignore people who don't have a clue- there are many!
  10. The bigger the odds discrepancy - the bigger the bet!
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