At BettingBias we are constantly looking for an edge in our horse racing betting and these are five elements we analyse to increase our profitability.
1. Sectional Timings
If a horse gets from A to B in the fastest time, it is the best horse in the race? Not necessarily.
In the 'old days' you could simply back the horse with the best speed rating and turn a profit but that doesn't hold anymore and for good reason. Horse racing is full of pace nuances.
Not all races are run at a solid gallop. Some will start at a crawl and turn into a sprint finish. Others will see the leaders go off hard and tire.
Sectional times allow us to investigate different tranches of the race. For example Horse A might win in an average overall time but if we know the early pace was very slow and his finish fast, we can upgrade the performance.
Sectional times are about looking for something that isn't obvious to the majority of form readers.
2. Going
Over their careers, horses might show a preference for a certain type of going. That might be heavy or firm and everything in between.
Official going descriptions in the UK can be wrong. It therefore pays to do you own research. Establish time 'pars' for different going descriptions at each track. After each meeting you can draw you own conclusions on the going by looking at the times and ideally adjusting for the pace, using sectionals.
3. Draw
The position where a horse starts often has a bearing on the outcome. At Chester for example it is an advantage to be drawn in the four lowest stalls.
Tracks in the UK have their own idiosyncrasies, these change over time but it is something you need to be aware of.
4. Class
UK flat racing is divided into seven class categories, 1 being the best 7 being the worst. Many horses will reach a class ceiling, which they cannot win above.
Look out for this because once they return to run in their own grade they could become a viable betting proposition.
5. Price
Being a successful horse racing punter isn't just about picking winners, it's about backing them at the right price.
If you have a 20% strike rate but your average winner is 2/1 then you are not going to turn a profit in the long run.
Shop around and get the best possible price for your horse but only place a bet if you believe the horse has a better chance of winning than the odds suggest.
