Odds Movements and Technical Betting Analysis

There are bettors who are interested in monitoring betting odds movements and building strategy patterns from their favorite sport events.

The sports betting market could be seen in a similar way to stocks market where instead of shares we have odds which are being traded. Similar to the "shares" we have the "pre-game odds" or the "in-running odds" which are subject to movement. These movements are based either on internal or external facts. All related to event itself may be called internal facts and these could be: wrong opening odds or lines, changing weather, participants’ issues (in/out reserve players, injuries, illness). External facts are those who have indirect impact to the events itself such as "big" amount of money backed on specific betting offer.

Sometime the bookmaker itself wants to stimulate customers betting behavior by decreasing or increasing odds. Anyway, if these odds movements’ changes remain within a range defined as "acceptable" there will be no suspicion. However, when the changes in prices (odds and lines) lead to "violent shocks" and those changes are not justifiable by the event itself, then we could be witnessing an attempt of a fixed or manipulated event. International agencies who monitor world betting activity (Federbet, FDS Sportradar, Interpol etc.) estimate that the number of disguised fixing matches now exceeds 1000 matches a year. We, as regular bettors do not have access to inside information, specially related to quantity of money involved in those irregular betting activity. Betting Exchanges are the ones who have public available the money involved in trading. But their market area is small comparing to world online betting. We are not intending to cover in this mini-article, the betting manipulated phenomenon.

As regular bettors, understanding the significance of the market movements, from the opening time to the closing time is a vital betting strategy for those who are trying to predict the winner of a sport event. By taking notice of the odds and other market data movements, players could be on the right track to become successful. The phrases "money talks" and "wisdom of the crow" are true nowadays and the flow of the money is also the most accurate way to determine the outcome of any future event. Understanding these market movements can help to predict the future in everything from sports betting to important world affairs. For example, the dramatic shortening/dropping of a tennis player's odds may be a good indication of a strong opinion about a change in that individual's chance in a given match. It doesn't guarantee that the player will win, but if you are going to bet on the match, it's up to you to decide whose opinion you trust more: the market or your own.

Another example which could be useful in making betting decisions comes from finding inadvertence from the pre-game betting data movements compared to the in-running betting data movements for the same sport event. There are no 100% sure formulas for bet winning, but anyone of you can build a personal strategy based on the betting market odds and data movements which could help to predict the future of a sport event.

Many "professional" punters said that you have to find "value offer" when you place any bet. Nothing more true with this argument. But how this "value" can be quantified in an ordinary meaning? The answer implied statistics, gut instinct and experience. So there are many uncertainties in saying what "value" really is. In my opinion, profit gain in an acceptable period of time is more relevant than any value of bets placed. Suppose that you have not get the higher odd-price, but your pattern is good enough and brings you profit in long run with more bets? Isn't this a better strategy to follow?

From my experience, any pattern has a life time until odds-maker figure out, but can be developed others which work out. Some odds-makers said that setting and adjusting odds have behind the scenes both math (75%-85%) and uncertainties (15%-25%), so there are rooms for finding good patterns.

If you follow a soccer tipster which has good history, maybe you could sharpen his real bets using this method.

If you like to bet much safer in soccer, maybe this double chance betting strategy will help you be a winner.

If you like to bet on bigger events, maybe these kinds of events where "wisdom of the crow" shape the odds like this one: https://www.oddsarchive.com/15348/

You can figure out a good pattern where you would follow rising odds instead of dropping ones.

If you think the ups ↗ and downs ↘ odds are enough for you, just follow flashscore or betexplorer websites. If you want to do more and build many kind of pattern strategy based on odds movements (1X2, double chances, AH, over/under), bookie margin, maximum stake allowed and more, you can jump here at OddsArchive.com where we do offer both free and pay packages.

Remember:
1. Do not bet more than you cannot afford!
2. Have a good money management!
3. Think for a long time betting activity!

Good luck!